Economic value of weather and climate forecasts

Optimal use and economic value of weather forecasts for lettuce irrigation in a humid climate

The problem of analyzing a sequence of daily irrigation decisions utilizing weather forecast information is formulated for the case of lettuce grown in central New York state, and solved using a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm. The crop response is represented using a simple but physiologically-based model of lettuce growth [van Henten, E.J., 1994. Validation of a dynamic lettuce growt...

Intra-seasonal climate prediction - linking Weather and Climate Forecasts

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon, associated with periods of active convection in the eastern hemisphere tropics.The MJOs temporal scale (22-90 days) coincides with a gap between weather (synoptic forecasts out to 10 days) and climate (seasonal and longer forecasts).Analysis of 35 years of daily rainfall data shows significant modulation of tropical and e...

Weather Satellites and the Economic Value of Forecasts: Evidence from the Electric Power Industry

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather informat...

Chapter 4 Weather and Climate Forecasts for Agriculture

Emergency Management Decision Biases for Climate and Weather Forecasts

Emergency managers who work on weather-related disasters comprise an important audience for climate forecasts. This paper examine how such emergency managers—a class of experts who routinely deal with uncertain information—interpret weather forecasts as well as longer-range forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies such as El Niño events. We rely on a national-level survey of county emergency man...